Winona Torrent manipulation

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Exarion
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Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Sat Apr 04, 2015 7:28 am

Strat idea to make Torrent more consistent: http://pastebin.com/Y48Fa0Li
(EDIT: Revised a few hours later; read my post below Amoeba's)

Feedback appreciated. I hate this fight so much and would be happy beyond words if we could make it less painful.
Last edited by Exarion on Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Amoeba » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:25 am

Pelliper is guaranteed to protect, even after multiple other protects, if you're using an x item?

It seems to me that rock tomb missing on altaria is basically run over, which is extra set up, extra buying and a handful extra turns (the standard winona fight is 11 turns, you'd have to be fairly unlucky to have to stall for more than 2 for torrent, at least from what I've seen of it) to have a 20% chance to die anyway. If it works, it's certainly an alternative, but I feel it just looses a bit to much time to be worth it (Torrent strats themselves don't save more than 1:30 really, and this strat eats what, 8 secs for the extra money, 3-4 secs to buy and at least 14secs on the ideal regular winona anyway).

EDIT: Provided you're not planning on using it on 12-13iv, wouldn't the Carbos above Meteor falls be a faster option for money?
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:06 am

Yeah, the Rock Tomb on Altaria sucks. It looks like you can reliably get Lv. 38 by picking up an extra Rare Candy, which would guarantee a 1-shot with Strength at +4 on any runnable Attack. You also wouldn't need the X Special unless you have a terrible Sp. Atk IV, and you wouldn't need the X Speed on 20+ IV Speed. And the extra level would help in a few places later (e.g., T&L for extra defense to skip Oran, or extra Sp. Atk to do fast strat).

Also, I just realized there's a perfect Torrent setup for Pelipper that doesn't require Solarbeam: the Tropius guy that we normally fight with Castform. From full HP, two non-crit Razor Leafs always puts Swampert in Torrent, and you 3HKO with Strength. So you can just enter Winona in Torrent, X Attack on Swablu and sweep. You can also OHKO the Swablu with Surf and try to 2HKO the Tropius (Rock Tomb turn 1, healing to full if you miss, and RT/Strength/Surf turn 2 depending on first roll).

Money shouldn't be a concern at all, because we should be picking up the HP Up anyway, and $4900 gets us more X items for the entire run than we need. Every route I know picks up at least one money item in addition to the Nugget, the fastest of which is the Stardust (5.5s to pick up), so the HP Up would simply be a substitute for our current money item(s) at the expense of 1-3 seconds.

The turn counter doesn't advance when you use an item, so the game still thinks it's Pelipper's first turn. Based on my testing, Pelipper always uses Protect on its first turn when you're at low HP (unless Water Gun can kill, which generally requires <16 HP). So every turn of setup is fast and 100% free.

Revised strat:
Turn 1: X Attack (15-20% risk of Perish Song, literally the only risk of the fight)
Turn 2: Surf
Turn 3: Strength
Turn 4: Strength
Turn 5: X Attack
Turn 6: X Attack
Turn 7: X Attack
Turn 8: Mud Shot
Turn 9: Strength
Turn 10: Surf
Turn 11: Strength
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Amoeba » Sat Apr 04, 2015 5:58 pm

Couple more issues OpieOP :
Exarion wrote: Money shouldn't be a concern at all, because we should be picking up the HP Up anyway, and $4900 gets us more X items for the entire run than we need. Every route I know picks up at least one money item in addition to the Nugget, the fastest of which is the Stardust (5.5s to pick up), so the HP Up would simply be a substitute for our current money item(s) at the expense of 1-3 seconds.
Stardust/extra TM/other money items are sold at slateport, to be able to afford the shopping there. HP Up is too late for this. (unless you're going for 4 super potions AND you don't need 5 repels.)
Exarion wrote:From full HP, two non-crit Razor Leafs always puts Swampert in Torrent
2 Non crit Razor Leafs is even worse odds than not missing a Rock Tomb. 9/16 is barely above a coin flip. However, getting torrent before winona isn't unheard of, and I've personally got a route for the case that you have torrent coming out of the weather institute (you skip the bed heal and hold torrent up to winona. It gives you a faster set of doubles, so having a strat to hold torrent through winona does look tempting).

I'm loving the thought that's going into this, but I feel the odds are not much of an improvement over the regular fight. Does look like you're close to something though, maybe routing holding torrent from weather institute/norman onwards. Might have a look when I get time.
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Sat Apr 04, 2015 7:05 pm

You can afford the following with no extra money items except the HP Up:

Petalburg: Buy 2 Potions, 3 Repels, 2 X Attacks and 2 X Speeds
Slateport: Sell TM47. Buy 4 Super Potions and 5 Repels
Fallarbor: Sell HP Up and Nugget. Buy 2 Escape Ropes, 9 Super Repels, 8 X Specials, 6 X Speeds, 15 X Attacks, 1 X Defend and 1 Guard Spec. (can obviously buy more X Specials/Attacks with good Speed)
Lavaridge: Buy 7 Energy Roots and 4 Heal Powders

Razor Leaf has a 1/8 chance to critical in Gen 3, so the odds of two consecutive non-crits is 69% (0.875*0.875*0.95*0.95). In some cases, you'll have taken enough damage before the fight, so Castform can do it in order to preserve Swampert's HP. Or Castform can put Tropius into 2HKO range and then die, and then Swampert can come in and take one Razor Leaf (83%).

If Razor Leaf criticals on turn 1, you have Torrent and can switch to Castform for a nearly guaranteed win. If Razor Leaf criticals on turn 2, you can switch to Castform, Revive Swampert, and revert to current Torrent manip strats (because with no Revive, you can't afford to risk a death to either Tropius). There is a safety Revive in the first patch of grass on Route 120 in case you lose your first one or want a second one for safety.
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Amoeba » Sat Apr 04, 2015 7:28 pm

Ahh, my bad on the money route then. However, I was under the impression (and bulbapedia agrees with me) that high critical hit moves in generations 2-3 increased your crit stage +2, which gives you a 1/4 chance to crit. It was my original issue when vince suggested the original winona-torrent strats, as crobat air cutter crit was 1/4 and would always kill.

(I also forgot to include razor leaf's chance to miss in my calcs, so the odds of getting torrent off that fight and surviving become [0.75*0.75*0.95*0.95]-[0.25*0.95*0.5] = 0.3889, really awful odds. Even if a crit was 1/8, 70% sounds shite)
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:21 pm

Critical hits are 1/4 in Gen 2 and 1/8 in Gen 3. Bulbapedia is wrong.
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:33 pm

I looked at the calcs for Darius' Tropius a little more closely, and it looks like he can 2-hit you from full with Razor Leaf. So there likely isn't a consistent way to manipulate Torrent before Winona, but that should still be the goal, since Winona is 100% free if you have 5 X Attacks (which you should unless you died to Flannery or Norman).

You still get Lv. 38 for Skarmory if Castform kills Tropius, which allows flexibility for that fight. I'm a little worried about healing items, as it's possible you'll need to heal Castform twice and then Revive either Swampert or Castform, but this is basically the same problem that current strats have.
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Amoeba » Sun Apr 05, 2015 12:52 am

Hmm, blatting out 100 razor leafs from that tropius seems to suggest the crit ratio is 1/4 (21 from 100), but its not a great sample size. Regardless that's irrelevant now if torrent isn't consistent. I do like the alternative of the other strats with lvl38, but to me its still swapping one set of luck out for another.
Giving it some thought, why would this not work:
If you have torrent before winona (again, maybe using skip weather institute heal, maybe not), make sure you're above 20HP (leftover orans), then
Swablu: X Attack x3, Strength
Tropius: Strength
Pellipler: RT, Strength (RT for protect)
Skarmory: Surf x2 (AA does up to 22, pray for no crit)
Altaria: Strength (RT on shitty attack? Not sure how bad a range strength might be here, possibly not great)

10 turn fight, hold torrent throughout. The only issue I can think of is whether the swablu is prone to Perish song when you start stat boosting (which I'm guessing it might, now that I think about it.)

EDIT: quick bit of testing shows that the swablu doesn't automatically go for perish song, but I'm not that comfortable with giving it this many turns really. Turns out the tropius is a range (tested with neutral 31iv, which was a surprise. It still goes for solarbeam though, so its only an extra turn) and so is the altaria (not that surprising, but creates issues with getting killed and all that. RT seems guaranteed though), so its not a great strat. Plausible though, I guess.
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Sun Apr 05, 2015 1:15 am

I got 12 crits in 100 trials, for what that's worth.

I don't like giving Swablu multiple turns, especially when setting up (Perish Song means inevitable switch, and you lose your X Attacks). I think the likelihood of getting Perish Song stays the same as you use X items, because the game still thinks it's turn 1. From my testing, Swablu uses Perish Song 15-20% of the time on any HP except Aerial Ace kill range. I also don't like giving Skarmory turns, because -1 Accuracy on Altaria is scary.

You need to be at +4 to OHKO with Strength unless you have amazing Attack (I think 14 at 5).

Getting Torrent for Winona still seems inconsistent, but free turns on Pelipper just seems too good to turn down. It may lose time to the perfect fight, but getting that fight is very rare, and it's also possible to lose 1+ minute (or lose the run). With this strat, you can only lose the run to terrible stats or an extremely unlikely combination of criticals from Swablu and Pelipper.

EDIT: Skipping the bed heal consistently seems like the direction we're headed in, especially in light of new spinner discoveries. Torrent can be manipulated by Strengthing Carvanhas (there are a bunch). You still need to get through two double battles where not everything is a OHKO, but those fights aren't threatening as long as Castform stays alive. Castform also needs to land 2-3 Powder Snows against Tropius before it dies (otherwise you need to Revive/heal or risk Rock Tombing Tropius).
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Amoeba » Sun Apr 05, 2015 1:25 am

Lol, that almost perfect 1/8. Yeah, it might be the case that I'll try the strat out and it just clicks when I do it, I'm just not feeling it looking solely at the numbers. Also yeah the Skarmory sand attack does suck, another reason to avoid that one of mine.
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Sun Apr 05, 2015 4:53 am

Related note: If Swampert gets the all of the experience from Tropius and you get the extra Rare Candy, you get Lv. 40 for Maxie 1's Mightyena, which is necessary on really bad Sp. Atk or slightly below average Speed. You get Lv. 40 for Crobat, Lv. 41 for Golbat and Lv. 42 for T&L either way.

EDIT: Tropius gets you Lv. 43 for Lunatone, which allows you to use the really fast T&L strat on ~25 IV neutral Sp. Atk. Unfortunately, that strat also requires that EQ+EQ+Ancientpower put you into Torrent, which it won't do from full HP on good HP+Defense. So you might need to Potion/Super Potion to slightly less than full and then rely on good Sp. Def to deter Xatu from targeting Swampert after the two Earthquakes.

Other benefits of using the extra Rare Candy:
- Lv. 37 for the double battle in Winona's gym (slightly improved ranges, outspeed Xatu at 21+ IV)
- Lv. 41 for Gyarados (slightly improved ranges)
- Lv. 44 for all of the true double battle (slightly improved ranges and bulk, outspeed Golbat at 27+ IV)
- Lv. 45 for Sharpedo (guaranteed OHKO with +1 Torrented Surf at 21+ IV)
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Amoeba » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:06 pm

Had a look at some ranges for your strat, and Neutral natured lvl36 Swampert with 0IV in Sp.def has a 75% chance to die to Winona's Tropius' Solarbeam, and it takes a 20IV up on neutral natures to guarantee not dying to it without a crit.

I've been think about this fight, and I've come up with a couple of things (in my head, haven't been able to test).

Code: Select all

1. X Atk [Perish song is annoying here but switching and starting again works]
2. X atk [Perish song sucks ass here]
3. Strength
4. X Atk
5. Rock Tomb [20% to miss, death on bad sp.def or if not at full health]
(5.5 X Speed if on 25 or less health and you wont outspeed the altaria)
6. Mud Shot [Protect]
7. Strength
8. Surf [Sand Attack ;-;, Aerial Ace in torrent can kill]
9. Surf
10. Rock Tomb
This strat has a couple of options to throw in: if you're not in torrent you can take an extra turn on tropius to get it. If you do do that, you can also use an extra turn to X Atk again on the solarbeam charge turn, so you can Strength both tropius and Altaria, making the fight safer. The other option is to use a turn on pelliper for X Spec, to avoid Skarmory (I'd personaly recommend this). You could sort of combine the two, if you're fine going for the RTs on Tropius and Altaria but don't want to risk skarmory getting a turn, by using tropius' 2nd solarbeam charge turn to x Spec. That could easily blow up in your face when RT misses however.
Not sure how viable this strat is, with the good selection of places for RNG to kill you, but with the ideal fight being 10 turns its faster than the original strat (even with the 8secs to collect HP Up, as if you knew you were going for that you wouldn't need to get stardust/an early TM)
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Mon Apr 06, 2015 7:17 pm

I don't like that much risk on Swablu, Tropius and Altaria. I think we really need to capitalize on the free turns Pelipper is guaranteed to give us.

Here's an attempt at routing Torrent into the late game with one Rare Candy: http://pastebin.com/y2Vtwqg7
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Amoeba » Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:33 pm

Will look at that pastebin while I have time, but while I remember I was testing some winona stuff earlier and, after getting perish song and switching out (and killing the swablu and tropius) I started to set up on the pelliper and it supersoniced on turn 3, which is a nightmare. I imagine it might have something to do with me switching out, but it might be that it has a small chance to do it anyway.
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:42 pm

Amoeba wrote:Will look at that pastebin while I have time, but while I remember I was testing some winona stuff earlier and, after getting perish song and switching out (and killing the swablu and tropius) I started to set up on the pelliper and it supersoniced on turn 3, which is a nightmare. I imagine it might have something to do with me switching out, but it might be that it has a small chance to do it anyway.
At HP were you for Pelipper? And did you have a slave out vs. Pelipper?
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Amoeba » Mon Apr 06, 2015 11:57 pm

Cant remember for certain but I think it was full HP, and I definitely only had swampert out against it (otherwise it wouldn't be first turn).
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Re: Winona Torrent manipulation

Post by Exarion » Tue Apr 07, 2015 5:08 am

Amoeba wrote:Cant remember for certain but I think it was full HP, and I definitely only had swampert out against it (otherwise it wouldn't be first turn).
Yeah, the pattern I'm noticing is <50% HP + first turn = guaranteed Protect. It favors Protect but can use other moves at 50-100% HP.
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