Why I think the WR is bogus

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G_heinz
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Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:32 am

Sup everybody.

I don't know if anyone even checks these boards, but I think it's important to share this with the PSR community at large rather than just keeping it to the Sapphire community.

Like most, I fully accepted MBM's Sapphire WR when I first started running the game. It seemed only natural that the WR would be every bit the godlike run that MBM's seems to be. However, as recently as the past few days I have taken a closer look at it and, when combined with the experience I've gained running the game myself since the last time I watched the WR run in full, I have come to the conclusion that it is almost definitely manipulated/segmented/faked. I have no direct proof except to list every single bit of RNG that MBM gets and doesn't get, and to try and explain in more detail the consequences of these things as well as the sheer improbability that they would all happen in the same run.

http://pastebin.com/D62UVKSz

I understand that this is very long, so if you don't care, don't read it. However, if the integrity of PSR matters to you, I encourage you to give it a skim. I've included timestamps for everything.

I welcome any criticism as well. I want this thread to be a place just for general discussion of the possibility/probability that MBM's WR run is illegitimate.

EDIT: I figure I should probably give people an idea how I did the calculations.

For those who don't know, there's literally a compendium of stats that someone compiled of every single Pokemon that you have to fight in the run. Dunno who did it but they're an absolute saint, as it's the only thing that made this kind of testing possible. In addition I used the damage calculator at Pokemon Showdown, which has an option for every single generation, meaning that the calculations were accurate to a game of the ADV generation (for instance, if I just used a pure gen VI calc, it would calc crits as x1.5 instead of x2, but the calculator I used was accurate to Sapphire's use of the mechanic).

More specifically, I would note Mudkip/Marshtomp/Swampert's level at the time of a suspicious damage range, skip back in the video to where MBM leveled up to that level, pause the video on the stats to write them down, apply any relevant badge boosts to the stats, then enter those stats directly into the calculator. On the defending side I would enter the Pokemon in question, set it to the correct level, and manipulate its IVs manually until they produced the stat value given in the compendium (defensively this means their HP stat and their def/spdef stat, and offensively of course it means their atk/spatk stat). Below are links to both:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... ring#gid=0

http://pokemonshowdown.com/damagecalc/

If people are curious as to specific stat ranges, I can calculate those kinds of things too (e.g., what kind of atk/spatk stat you need to get certain KOs, what kind of def stat you would need to survive some certain hit, etc.). I tried to explain in as much detail as possible why each situation in question was fishy to me at least under the circumstances of MBM's Lonely 14 / 10 / 10. I can also calculate IV ranges of his kip and his ogre if people are curious about that.
Last edited by G_heinz on Sun Jul 06, 2014 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by timlinktom » Sun Jul 06, 2014 5:19 pm

I dont want to think this is true however his mindset makes no logical sense and he should have lost the run allot of times but he got amazing luck that it feels like he played into...

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by Zewing » Sun Jul 06, 2014 6:53 pm

This is a heavy accusation to make, but you wouldn't be the first to have had doubts over the run.

I read your pastebin, but most of the claims are comparing his route to the current (aka 2014) route.

Aside from that, if you could find any audio / visual / oddities in his run from a technical aspect, that would be more proof than saying "he got good rng."

I'm sure MBM could answer any concerns you have over his run. I for one hope these "claims" aren't true.
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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by shark » Sun Jul 06, 2014 7:21 pm

the run was done in june 2013. the route's changed massively since then. your 'accusations' are basically just saying 'omg how could he not notice x was faster omgggg he's a cheater'. what i also noticed was even when he didn't get good luck you were trying to use it as evidence, note what you wrote on the roxanne fight. what you said there was literally 'he didn't critical there he must have done that so it wasn't blatantly hacking'.

sorry, not really seeing your point.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Sun Jul 06, 2014 8:25 pm

Zewing wrote:This is a heavy accusation to make, but you wouldn't be the first to have had doubts over the run.

I read your pastebin, but most of the claims are comparing his route to the current (aka 2014) route.

Aside from that, if you could find any audio / visual / oddities in his run from a technical aspect, that would be more proof than saying "he got good rng."

I'm sure MBM could answer any concerns you have over his run. I for one hope these "claims" aren't true.
It is true that I compared it to the current route, but I don't see why this is a problem because the route is basically identical except for various "safe strats" that we use now. You're right though that some more "hard" evidence would be good, and I've been looking into doing that by thinking of how one would concoct a run like this in the first place.
shark wrote:the run was done in june 2013. the route's changed massively since then. your 'accusations' are basically just saying 'omg how could he not notice x was faster omgggg he's a cheater'. what i also noticed was even when he didn't get good luck you were trying to use it as evidence, note what you wrote on the roxanne fight. what you said there was literally 'he didn't critical there he must have done that so it wasn't blatantly hacking'.

sorry, not really seeing your point.
I'm aware of when the run was posted. I also tried my best to point out any situation in which his strats vary from the current route. And yes, my comment on the Roxanne fight was speculative but in my opinion not altogether unreasonable.

What I really want people to understand, especially people who don't regularly run this game, is that the route "differences" are so minuscule it's not even funny. If you really want I can make a full list of the differences in MBM's route vs. our current route, but I thought I covered the majority of the notable ones in the pastebin at least enough to get across my main point, which maybe wasn't clear, so here I'll say a bit more explicitly: All of MBM's "yolo" strats are barely faster yet ten times as risky. For example, I believe spitfire timed how long it takes to pick up the hidden Revive, Ether, and get Soft Sand on Slateport beach, and it amounted to ~40 seconds. In a run like this, it wouldn't just be trivial to skip them just to save time, but in my opinion very stupid. Other instances abound. You're telling me he has WR just because he saved time not selling the Nugget to buy extra Hypers in Mossdeep? I simply don't believe that someone on such blazing pace would not have played it just a little on the safe side and bought a full 8-10 Hyper Potions before Tate and Liza. And I guess the main crux of my argument, if it's not really coming across, is that even if I could accept that he would play so recklessly JUST to get an insane time like 2:02, he would have been spending hours a day for months grinding out a run like this, and would have other documented PB's to show for it. If he can produce those, I would be more than happy to watch them.

Say what you will, but I'm not convinced. And I would like MBM to speak to these accusations because I'm completely open to the idea that it's legit if he just can effectively explain away the concerns I've outlined. Not sure how he could, but we'll see.

And as far as the routing is concerned, I really want people to understand that he saves virtually no time on yolo strats and that other than that, the route is essentially identical. The majority of his timesave is by getting impeccable luck on every single major fight.

I don't want to argue stupidly about this either and I'm really wide open to criticism. I posted this knowing full well that it might not be received calmly or immediately by the community, but I want a rigorous, healthy discussion about it. That being said, of course if people just want to come here and tell me I'm just bitching because "I suck at Sapphire" or "I can't beat MBM's time", then I would prefer those people to just kindly butt out.

As a serious question though, do either of you run this game? Or have you in the past? How familiar are you with the route? etc. Honest question.

EDIT: Also I don't understand where the "route differences" criticism is even coming from unless the specific criticism was something along the lines that "the current route uses safe strats that are slower so you'll never beat his time unless you cut them out." I've already spoken up as to why I think that's bullshit (i.e., the safe strats waste very negligible amounts of time), but even beyond that there are other differences in our routes where MBM uses strats that are just worse. In particular against Flannery, as I point out in the writeup, there's no need to equip Pecha because the second Slugma doesn't know Smog. By not equipping Cheri Berry he's asking to lose that fight, but doesn't get attracted, lives on 3HP, breaks through paralysis, and doesn't miss any attacks.

Again I wanna emphasize that it's not any one instance of "whew"-inducing RNG that makes it fishy to me, it's the totality of all those combined in one run.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by shark » Sun Jul 06, 2014 9:19 pm

40 seconds to pick up a revive, soft sand and ether? and you wonder why he skipped them? for a start nobody had thought of the soft sand adaptation, and 40 seconds is a huge amount of time in a speedrun. had he picked them up, his time would have been 2:03.

to answer your other question: no, i don't run this game, that doesn't mean i can't have an opinion. if you're going to ask everyone that isn't on your side whether they run the game or not, you may as well keep this matter to the sapphire community, because you're gonna be asking that question a lot.

EDIT:
G_heinz wrote:And I guess the main crux of my argument, if it's not really coming across, is that even if I could accept that he would play so recklessly JUST to get an insane time like 2:02, he would have been spending hours a day for months grinding out a run like this, and would have other documented PB's to show for it. If he can produce those, I would be more than happy to watch them.
you're arguing against yourself here, if he was playing that recklessly then he would have completed very few runs, if any at all. maybe he just spent hours practising, with savestates, and played that recklessly because he knew he could get such a good time if he did?

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Sun Jul 06, 2014 9:36 pm

look shark. that was not a personal attack. i did not ask you whether you run the game or not because you didn't immediately rush to my side. i asked because i wanted to get an understanding of what your understanding of the game was so that i could better understand how to explain my point of view. i didn't say you couldn't have an opinion. i didn't say your opinion was wrong. i asked you a question very plainly and nonaggressively.

debates do not have to be vicious or personal. i tried to be as objective and informational as i felt i could be in writing up that pastebin so that i could get my point across without sounding like all i was doing was complaining about MBM's seemingly insane RNG. thank you for taking it that way anyway.

to address your comment, either you don't understand why i said that 40 seconds is nothing or you don't care. the reason is because in a run like sapphire, or perhaps any pokemon speedrun to some extent, certain strats cost time but can be the difference between completing the run or not. my point being that, at the time that this was recorded, the WR was werster's, which is around 2:13. so i pointed out that safe strats like soft sand are better in the long run because a 2:03 with an intentional 40 second timeloss for the sake of completing the run is still a WR by 10 minutes, whereas without picking them up he would be resetting a whole lot more, and potentially losing runs that, while not "perfect", would still have qualified as WR or close to it at the time.

to cite a more extreme example as an illustration: why pick up persim berries at all? it just wastes time, right? probably takes at least 20-30 seconds to pick them up, depending on how many you grab. and hey, if everything goes according to plan, you won't ever get confused, right? or even if you do, you'll break through the confusion and you won't die. same could be said of the chesto we pick up and the cheri berries. MBM even goes a step further and picks up the pecha berries which are actually demonstrably unnecessary. are you suggesting we cut out any strat that could save a potentially good/decent run in the case of an emergency, or even just a run-of-the-mill semi-bad scenario? well that would be just total nonsense, and if we played that "yolo", we would never complete any single segment run ever.

EDIT:
shark wrote:you're arguing against yourself here, if he was playing that recklessly then he would have completed very few runs, if any at all. maybe he just spent hours practising, with savestates, and played that recklessly because he knew he could get such a good time if he did?
okay, fair enough. let me tell you why i think that's not the case.

his movement is admittedly very, very good. better than mine or any current sapphire runner. i used to think all the time he saved was based on that...until i started to examine more closely just how much time i was losing for certain patterns on certain fights that honestly weren't all that uncommon. that's when i realized that the majority of his timesave is from getting by and large the fastest fights possible (except norman where it's his own damn fault for having a slightly slower fight, since he only uses 1 X Defend on a -def nature). if that's the case, which it seems to be, then these hours of savestate practice you're suggesting wouldn't have amounted to his largest timesaves, because his largest timesaves are based on RNG, something that he can't practice. does that make sense or am i talking out my asshole?

EDIT2: also
shark wrote:for a start nobody had thought of the soft sand adaptation
i thought that was the case too but actually greenmittenz uses soft sand in his 2:24 run, dated december 14, 2012, over six months before MBM's run.

EDIT3: i should also point out, if this changes anyone's idea of the timeloss here, that it's only ~40 seconds on slateport beach if you get all three of the aforementioned items: soft sand, the revive, and the ether. the soft sand is easily the most necessary item since you don't need it for JUST rival 2 (very crucial for zangoose), and picking up just soft sand can't take more than 10 seconds. completely negligible in the context of what we're talking about here--a finished single segment or yet another reset. if people really think those 10 seconds are worth resetting over once you die because you missed the second rock tomb, or got critted and killed by zangoose, then i don't even know what to say.
Last edited by G_heinz on Sun Jul 06, 2014 10:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by shark » Sun Jul 06, 2014 10:05 pm

looking at his run, mbm didn't want 'wr' he wanted a very good run. he could have got a 2:12 and it would have been a 'wr' but it wouldn't have satisfied how good he wanted his run to be. if he wanted a very good run, he was never gonna pick up a safety revive, if he had died anywhere it would have lost a lot of time even if it didn't cost him the run.

you're comparing apples with oranges here, saying that if you don't pick up a safety revive you shouldn't pick up persim berries. either you actually think that's a fair comparison (in which case you're deluded) or you're trying to convince us that what is a 50% chance to waste time every single turn is worth risking if you don't pick up a revive which, if used, means something's gone quite badly wrong.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Sun Jul 06, 2014 10:25 pm

hey shark: FUCK YOU.

...oh, sorry. thought that's what we were doing.

anyone want to talk about this without getting petty?

i legit don't understand how people can get so rude just because i'm questioning the validity of a run. i've run the game quite a lot now, gotten what i consider to be a decently respectable time, and knowing what i know, the WR run doesn't quite add up to me, so i'm voicing my concerns and asking for a good dispassionate discourse about it. what's so hard about that?

with respect to revive vs. persim, no i am not deluded, and no, it most certainly does not mean that something's gone "quite badly wrong" if you have to revive. there are several instances in the run where death is a possibility, and being forced to revive is not that unlikely of an outcome.

without a near perfect attack stat, it's possible to fail to 2HKO the rival 2 grovyle, with rock tomb or mud shot. the fight is still winnable at this point, though slightly uglier--luckily the grovyle is then at -2 speed and you can revive, then finish it off with a tackle quite easily. minimal timeloss, run saved.

even with soft sand equipped, the 2HKO on the zangoose in norman's gym can be a damage range with one bad damage roll if you don't have perfect attack. the zangoose has a 1/4 chance to crit you with slash--not exactly unlikely in the world of pokemon. if you die, what do you do? just reset an hour into a run that probably took three times that length of time to even get going? with a spare revive, there is minimal timeloss should he crit you and KO you, and you can come back in and finish the fight.

these are not the only examples.

keep in mind that these are all instances after abra is caught, which by itself has an astronomically low probability of occurring. because of this reset point so early in the run (~25-30 min in), if you even get a passable abra you should consider yourself very lucky. to then throw away a godlike abra that is honestly probably close to 1/1000 runs...just makes no sense.

also, i would believe that MBM reset repeatedly for a "good" time--instead of just a decent one that would beat or get close to WR--if he didn't use such ridiculously slow strats elsewhere in the run. his shopping route is atrocious and that's not similar to not thinking of soft sand strats or something. that literally comes down to googling where you can buy each item that you need and recognizing, as spitfire and others did eventually, that virtually all the X items you'll need for the rest of the run are available in fallarbor town.

i really don't wanna be a dick...even though i did just say something kind of dickish. i know i'm new to the community and you guys don't know me and i'm all of a sudden calling out a well-regarded WR run that has been around for nearly a year now, but i didn't insult your mother. i didn't call you a blithering idiot. i'm sharing my perspective and trying to gather others, while discussing the pros and cons of each as i see them. there's no reason why we shouldn't be able to do that. like i understand that this is the internet and you don't have to fear someone kicking your ass for calling them a shithead but we could just be better than that.

EDIT: also i wanna point out that in at least in the case of tate and liza, death is honestly more likely than not, and the fact that he did not prepare a bit more for that fight is one of the main things that astounds me about the run.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by ThePokeBot » Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:22 pm

Hi, I am the Pokebot and I can say with confidence the run isn't faked. Stop being angry and please bring actual evidence to your claim or accept the run til you can. Thank you for your time, human runner.
currently runs: RED PB: 1:51

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:34 pm

lol is this a joke? i ain't even mad pokebot. how about you give me a reason to believe a run with no misses? since you're a bot, surely you could do the math to figure out the probability of hitting every single attack at 95 or 80 accuracy. surely.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by Vincento341 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:17 am

I'm just going to say, I've gone through an entire emerald run (many, MANY more fights) with only missing rock tomb/mud shot maybe once or twice. The thing is, each time you use the move, you're favorable to actually land the move. The accuracy won't decrease if you don't miss. The chances of not missing ever in a run certainly not impossible. If you combine all of MBM's luck, sure it's very lucky, but when you grind hard, eventually you're going to have a good run with good luck. His biking for one, shows how much time he invested into getting a good time in the game, so unless he spliced (lol), assuming he was consistently that good, he was only relying on luck to go his way anyway.

MBM's run isn't the only really solid speedrun time out there by any means. In pokemon alone, just look at Werster's Yellow run. That was remarkably good. Of course it was streamed, but I'm just saying that it's more than possible to get an INCREDIBLE run with astoundingly good luck. I do offline attempts probably just as much as I stream them because I generally perform better that way where my sole focus is on the run. Doing it off-stream does open up the possibility of legitimacy issues, but some people prefer it (again, Werster's emerald run was offline).

In respect to the revive, that's a very personal choice. I know a lot of people who believe that reviving isn't worth it because it LOOKS bad. The run isn't as tidy-looking with a faint + revive. Personally, if I had a good time and wanted an even better time, I'd probably forgo a revive too. I mean, it wastes time to pick it up, then to use it and wait to switch your main pokemon in again, you're looking at a minimum of 20 seconds wasted if you use it. Also, there's been several runs I've completed without using a revive, and I'd say that it's even more important for emerald because you can't have castform die on any of the fights either. Comparing to persim berries is a bad idea. There's a reason you have to pick up as many as you do, almost everything confuses you.

In regards to the pecha berry vs cherri berry, it's pretty much pick your poison. Who knows, perhaps he's had really bad experiences with poison in his previous runs? Maybe paralysis was never really an issue for him, who knows? What I do know is people modify their route based on how necessary they think things are. I mean from all the sapphire I've seen (which is actually a decent amount), I don't know if I'd pick up Cherris (or pechas for that matter) either.

In regards to MBM justifying his accusations, it's pretty obvious what he's going to say. Firstly, that he reset A LOT, and secondly he got lucky. There's literally no way to defend yourself other than admitting you got lucky, so I wouldn't expect any groundbreaking responses from him about it.

This thread is getting a little hostile. I think everyone should just try and discuss this in a nicer way (not singling anyone out here OpieOP )
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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:48 am

thanks, yeah. my bad. appreciate the thoughtful response.

first, to clarify, you can't get poisoned in the flannery fight at all if you use the x attack on the second slugma because it doesn't know smog so pecha berries are entirely unnecessary.

the no-miss thing is only one facet to this. i've gotten runs where i either didn't miss or was very close to not missing at all too. that alone wouldn't be that suspicious. i personally think the most suspicious parts of the run are a) the two max damage ranges, surf on the doduo and hydro pump on the cradily, b) the crit on the zangoose, and c) the zigzagoon super potion pickup.

i'm new to the community and haven't run any other pokemon games, but watching a variety of runs it seems to me like sapphire (as well as emerald) is amongst the most unforgiving. in truth it's very much the circumstances of the run that confuse me too--guy basically never streams, there's no evidence of any of his other runs, but he holds the WR which was recorded offstream without splits or commentary.

i can appreciate wanting a "tidy" run, but this run is quite literally immaculate. if you haven't noticed, there are no actual timelosses in the entire run, except what the game naturally produces unavoidably (being outsped in certain fights and losing that turn kind of thing). i also understand that without "real proof" there's nothing he would really say except that he got "really lucky", like you said, and made "countless attempts", even if it were somehow forged--fine. so i wanna hear him say that. it's just a little strange that he's not even really present but just out of nowhere produces what is essentially a flawless run.

this isn't salt this is simply disbelief.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by Vincento341 » Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:00 am

Well I don't really know enough about sapphire to comment on the damage ranges. With the critical on zangoose though, he could have crit roxanne instead if he cheated, much more potential time saved. And if I can recall his run, I didn't notice him critting heaps of pokemon, it seems pretty fair. Again though, I'm not certain about the significance of zangoose because I haven't actually played sapphire in ages.

I'm not sure what the issue with the super potion pick up is though, it's 10% chance to find an item after a battle (sure, that's kind of low) but you do fight plenty of battles, and super potion is the most likely item to be picked up (30%, as opposed to something like a rare candy or nugget which is 10%). I don't know how many potions he got from his run, certainly I remember it happening on at least one occasion, but that's 3% chance after EACH battle. You fight several battles, so I mean it's kinda plausible. If it was a candy, that would be much more significant in my opinion. So unless he milked pick up like 10 times in the run, and for really good items, I would still just call that good luck. I mean skitty is a 2% encounter rate in emerald on a particular route and I've encountered 3 skitty's in 4 pokemon, which is probably the equivalent of getting 3 super potions after 3 battles.

Like I said, sometimes people just get damn lucky, and I think as gen 3 runners, we can naturally be in denial about how lucky people get sometimes, seeing as it seems impossible for all the stars to align at once. But it IS possible, especially if you put lots of time into it. I wouldn't say MBM's run is perfection, it's very very good, but it is (believe it or not) improvable.
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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by BBQSauz » Mon Jul 07, 2014 8:43 am

I don't know if the run is fake or not. Only MBM knows, definitively. But, in order to strip a WR, you need some evidence. Not speculation based on good RNG, or what strats he deemed appropriate. If that were good enough evidence, Werster's runs of Red, Yellow, and Crystal would all be deemed fake.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Mon Jul 07, 2014 3:18 pm

alright, clearly this was a mistake. i am not in fucking "denial" about MBM's time. i should have kept this to the sapphire community, amongst people who understand what i mean when i say that he crit that zangoose or else he was D-E-A-D dead. you people all act like i have a personal vendetta against the guy. i don't want to believe that he cheated either. i'm only bringing it up because upon crunching the numbers it just doesn't add up. again, clearly no one looked at the numbers, or it would seem fishy to them too. i thought that as a regular runner of the game with a pretty good time it would be my duty to speak up if i felt something was amiss. wasn't aware we all just dickride wr holders here without a second thought.

i'll bring it up with mbm myself. you can all laugh when he naturally maintains his innocence, but i know it's bullshit.

p.s. i still <3 u bbq

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by shark » Mon Jul 07, 2014 3:49 pm

G_heinz wrote:alright, clearly this was a mistake. i am not in fucking "denial" about MBM's time. i should have kept this to the sapphire community, amongst people who understand what i mean when i say that he crit that zangoose or else he was D-E-A-D dead. you people all act like i have a personal vendetta against the guy. i don't want to believe that he cheated either. i'm only bringing it up because upon crunching the numbers it just doesn't add up. again, clearly no one looked at the numbers, or it would seem fishy to them too. i thought that as a regular runner of the game with a pretty good time it would be my duty to speak up if i felt something was amiss. wasn't aware we all just dickride wr holders here without a second thought.

i'll bring it up with mbm myself. you can all laugh when he naturally maintains his innocence, but i know it's bullshit.

p.s. i still <3 u bbq
excuse me? you post a thread to get others' opinions and then complain when they aren't all on your side?

what you said on the zangoose:
This means that if he takes a hit from the Zangoose, which is very likely to crit him, his run is dead. Recall too how I mentioned it's nice to have the Revive from Slateport beach as backup, the same Revive that MBM just skips right over. In this situation, without Soft Sand, I would say MBM's in quite the pickle…except he crits the Zangoose with the first Mud Shot, allowing for an easy 2HKO, no damage taken at all. Very, very, very lucky.
he was only dead if it crit him. slash has a high crit ratio and is under the effects of dire hit, so the zangoose had a 1/3 chance to crit. if the zangoose landed a slash, mbm was more likely than not going to live. hardly 'dead if he didn't crit'

you say i'm being hostile but in reality i'm just not agreeing with you. you're trying too hard to make something out of this when there's nothing to be made out of it - and what do you want the community to do about it? remove the run from the leaderboards because 'he got lucky'? as others have stated above, if you can find any technical oddities with the run i'm sure people would be much more willing to agree with you^^

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by spitfire » Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:44 pm

Firstly i would like to say that as another runner of sapphire a lot of this doesn't add up, with a closer and more thorough look into this WR and i agree very very improbable.

Secondly Heinz posted this thread to simply show people things we have found as a sapphire community on the suspicions of the run in question, and personally as a peer to peer based community I feel it should be encouraged that runs in question should be discussed and looked into and not shunned upon. People should be able to question a runs legitimacy if things seem off and not be called the devil because of it.

Thirdly If people are going to comment and put their opinions forward it helps if they are strictly about the run and the topic and not to mention actually take the time to read the pastebin and all the points that are being raised, you give no valid or constructive opinion if you don't read the points, other than saying "stop bitching because you cant get a good time". this isn't supposed to be mindless attacks on certain people because they question a run, or defend it for that matter, This thread should simply discus points raised and possible outcomes both good and bad.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by Viskiv » Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:51 pm

This discussion is completely irrelevant. No matter how much suspicion anybody has, the run doesn't have definitive, concrete evidence of cheating. Anybody with half a brain and a need for attention could post a cheated WR for any game that can never be detected and definitively proved to be cheated, so the speedrunning community is dependent on trust.

But let's say you really are completely suspicious of MBM, that you just can't trust him. What do you do? I'll tell you: get over it. At the end of the day, WRs don't matter. They're fun to compete for, but they really aren't important, and your life will still go on without them. If he really did cheat, it's sad but it doesn't actually make a difference in anything. Focus on competition with yourself to improve your own time, have fun speedrunning, and stop worrying about a meaningless title. You'll have more fun that way than arguing for hours in an effort to strip somebody of a meaningless title, I promise.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Tue Jul 08, 2014 12:01 am

that's a shit attitude viskiv. sorry you feel that way.

if you read the paste, you read where i said that i'm not doing this so i can claim WR (werster would still have it anyway even if mbm's run was fake). i'm doing this because i care about the integrity of the community as a smaller reflection of the speedrunning community as a whole, and more specifically i care that my game is potentially being misrepresented to viewers and potential players out there. that's my business. if you want to tell me how to go about playing my game, you can just gtfo. you're not contributing to the discussion in any way shape or form.

i recognize that speedrunning is at its core an activity of self-competition. i think that kind of drive towards personal growth is very healthy, very desirable, and very enjoyable. i play melee competitively and main c. falcon, probably the most shit "high" tier character in the game not because i want to be the best in the world someday, but so that i can improve myself, and learn to face myself and grow in ways that i wouldn't otherwise be able to without participating in that activity. i find it very rewarding and very fun. i am no stranger to this type of activity.

what i should have prefaced the OP with was this: if you care about the integrity of the community, read my paste and give me your honest feedback. if you're here to tell me not to get my undies in a bundle over something that you perceive to be meaningless, then take your substanceless drivel elsewhere.

people seem to be heavily misunderstanding my motivations here. i am the kind of person who really likes to think. to problem solve. i think most speedrunners have to be if they're really going to sink so many hours into doing this kind of thing, both routing and execution-wise. i am not doing this to "strip somebody of a meaningless title", i'm doing it because sapphire is a kind of puzzle to me that i've been trying to solve, better and better each time. and to me, mbm's run is very puzzling. i'm doing this mostly out of curiosity, because it's highly curious to me after playing it so much that such a run was produced under the circumstances it was purportedly produced under. if you're here just to tell me it's a waste of time then i absolutely do not care to hear your input. it does not speak to my motivations in the slightest.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by Amoeba » Tue Jul 08, 2014 12:20 am

There are a lot of people in this here thread getting very angry very quickly for no reason. You can have a discussion from opposite sides of an argument and not insult each other folks~

Heinz, firstly I think that you've been very rash by outright stating that MBM's run is definitely hacked/maniped/whatever, especially considering the short time you have been speedrunning for (yes it is just as long as I have but I'm not making these accusations, and yes you have done a fairly large number of resets, but in one and only one game). Secondly your entire argument is based upon the fact that MBM gets very lucky across the run, and that while individual moments of good luck aren't uncommon, this amount of luck across the run seems fishy. From a purely probabilistic point of view this is an extremely weak argument, as each point where MBM gets good or bad RNG is, for the most part, independent from the other, and getting good RNG in one in no way affects the likelihood of good/bad RNG in the following states. Thirdly, to focus on a specific point in the pastebin, 'He didn't get the Magic Crit on Nosepass, and as this is a known timesaver he probably left this out to add credibility to his cheated run' is an argument that could be applied to any part of his run that gets bad RNG in an attempt to support your argument, and is again an incredibly weak point. Finally, generating this kind of suspicion over runs, I believe (and people may disagree), is a very negative thing to do, as it could potentially open up suspicions over any run that appears to get good RNG across the run. Effectively you could end up with a community that immediately throws out any run that gets even remotely good luck, and, while this is a 'slippery slope' speculation, hopefully it demonstrates the negative attitudes these sorts of accusations could generate. Ultimately it comes down to whether you would rather never reject a legitimate run, but risk allowing a few fake/cheated runs to be accepted, or whether to reject all potentially cheated/fake runs but risk rejecting potentially legitimate runs.

So yeah, that's my piece, for what its worth. I imagine it has mostly been said already though :3

EDIT:
G_Heinz wrote:hey shark: FUCK YOU.
G_Heinz wrote:i am not in fucking "denial" about MBM's time. i should have kept this to the sapphire community, amongst people who understand what i mean when i say that he crit that zangoose or else he was D-E-A-D dead.
G_Heinz wrote:i'll bring it up with mbm myself. you can all laugh when he naturally maintains his innocence, but i know it's bullshit.
The above really makes you sound like you're throwing your toys out of the pram because MBM has a better time than you (Edit 2: Or because shark is disagreeing with you). You may indeed have a completely valid and legitimate point, but if you're going to swear and be so hostile towards anyone that disagrees with you you're not going to get very far.
Or, to put it in looser terms, you're acting like a tit.
~

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Tue Jul 08, 2014 1:02 am

you're right moobs.

i'm sorry to anyone i've snapped at. was unnecessary and paints my argument in a bad light.

i may be reaching pretty far here, but i think it's far from unwarranted. before i started running in the community i never would have thought that a WR run could be recorded offstream, claimed, while no one bats an eyelash. i disagree that encouraging a critical viewing of such runs encourages us to throw the baby out with the bathwater--that is, questioning one run is by no means some slippery slope towards trashing any run submitted that seems to get good RNG.

the reason i've gotten frustrated is that it's pretty obvious to me that no one who has yet responded has actually read my pastebin in full, or at the very least has not actually watched the entire run. that's understandable, as i have a tendency to be very longwinded and the run itself is two hours long. my frustration stems from the fact that these people then condescendingly claim/imply that i'm just crying wolf because i can't get a comparable time. that's just not the case, but no matter how many different ways i say it no one really seems to be listening. truthfully, no one even outright disagreed with me--they didn't say they thought the run WASN'T fake, they just said it was either foolish/premature/pointless for me to claim that it was. well, that's just plainly not the question i asked.

i'm honestly a little angry not directly at certain individuals, but at the fact that no one seems to care if the run is fake or not. it seems as if it would be extremely trivial to people if it came out that it was forged. for some god-awful reason, people seem to think that the reputation behind a runner like MBM (or werster, for that matter) is enough to justify just letting the time stand without even a second thought. and crucially, i'm not demanding that it be ripped down from the leaderboards right this instant. i would only like to see some due scrutiny. i'm sure everyone knows that if someone randomly came along and posted a run like that, it would have been torn down without a moment's hesitation. i see this kind of mentality everywhere in the community. werster has cheated in the past at sonic and has openly admitted it (after a similar kind of pastebin was made). i'm not familiar with many other runs outside gen 3, but i know for a fact that he has achieved some times that a lot of people are highly suspicious of, yet they say nothing due to the same attitude--"what am i supposed to say? it's werster, it could have just been an incredible run." i don't want to derail the discussion anymore than i already have by bringing werster's time into question, but that's just a defeatist, pointless attitude to have if the purpose of this community is to foster healthy, honest competition between gamers who share a passion. i would like to see that kind of attitude changed. it's a downright toxic mentality and invalidates everything the community stands for.

for example, in my chat today there was some discussion of werster's Red NOSC run. i'm completely unfamiliar with both the category and the run (i know some background but that's it), but most everyone in the chat openly agreed that the run was obviously bullshit. again, this is something i have no opinion on because i know nothing about it. but this was said by people familiar with that category, and it was extremely disheartening to me. if much of, or maybe even the entire community KNOWS a run to be bullshit, but nothing is done about it, then that's a pretty fucked up unhealthy community you have right there. that's pretty damn sad, and that's kind of the same sort of response i'm getting here--"you can't prove anything, nothing can be done about it, don't ask questions." and it downright pisses me off when people tell me not to ask questions because it's incidentally one of my favorite things to do.

the last thing i'll really say here is that people seem to be misunderstanding another thing that i'm saying, or rather think i'm saying something that i'm not. what i am NOT saying is that any good RNG is unbelievable. i had a glacia fight today where i forgot to max elixir first, which ended up wasting two turns in the fight (had to max elixir then hyper), during either of which turn the glalie could have used light screen and lost me the PB. luckily she crunched twice more (for a total of 3 spdef drops FailFish ), when by all rights i could have gotten screwed, but somehow didn't. these things happen and i understand that. i'm also not saying that an improbable run = a DEFINITELY fake run. completing ANY single segment run of sapphire is improbable PERIOD. i have completed exactly 10 single segment runs (8 PBs, one just short of a PB, and one lucky single-segment run in a race) in close to 1000 resets, which means that any single segment run is highly improbable. so that's not my accusation about MBM's run. MBM's run is far, far beyond improbable at several points, and above all, he plays as if he's going to get that kind of improbable luck. that's what i take issue with.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by Viskiv » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:21 am

I think you're missing a fairly big point. There is no concrete evidence that MBM or Werster have cheated runs. Cheating isn't actually taken lightly, and people who get caught doing so find themselves ousted from the community regardless of reputation, but nobody is about to ban Werster and MBM just because some of their runs have insanely good luck. The integrity of the community is important, but banning people over having absurdly good luck in an RNG based series of speedruns doesn't preserve integrity in any way. People will take your complaint seriously when you have undeniable evidence of cheating; until then, you're getting worked up over something that's really not nearly a big a deal as you make it out to be.

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by Vulajin » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:22 am

G_heinz wrote:before i started running in the community i never would have thought that a WR run could be recorded offstream, claimed, while no one bats an eyelash.
A run recorded offline and uploaded to Youtube is no more capable of being faked than a run streamed live with facecam. It's easily possible to replay an already-spliced run on stream and pretend you're playing live.
G_heinz wrote:my frustration stems from the fact that these people then condescendingly claim/imply that i'm just crying wolf because i can't get a comparable time.
Literally no person in this thread has leveled that claim. Feel free to reread the posts.
G_heinz wrote:truthfully, no one even outright disagreed with me--they didn't say they thought the run WASN'T fake, they just said it was either foolish/premature/pointless for me to claim that it was. well, that's just plainly not the question i asked.
I think the run isn't fake, but that is completely irrelevant. Whether or not anyone thinks the run is fake doesn't matter, because we do give people the benefit of the doubt if they have proven their legitimacy to the community in the past - and since you have only been around for a short time, let me point out that MBM has been a well-respected member of the Pokemon speedrunning community for a long time.
G_heinz wrote:i'm honestly a little angry not directly at certain individuals, but at the fact that no one seems to care if the run is fake or not. it seems as if it would be extremely trivial to people if it came out that it was forged. for some god-awful reason, people seem to think that the reputation behind a runner like MBM (or werster, for that matter) is enough to justify just letting the time stand without even a second thought.
Sorry, but this is how the world works. MBM has been around for a long time and established a reputation that supports him if someone wants to call the legitimacy of his run into question. His run receives a presumption of innocence, not guilt, until you can find actual proof or get him to admit to the alleged wrongdoing. A no-name newcomer receives increased scrutiny because that is how a community works.

Now that an accusation has been leveled, I care pretty strongly whether or not the run is fake. That has no bearing on my position that you cannot support an accusation with speculation and hand-waving.
G_heinz wrote:MBM's run is far, far beyond improbable at several points, and above all, he plays as if he's going to get that kind of improbable luck. that's what i take issue with.
If the run is fake, then there will be tells. Something won't line up between one section of the game and another, or there will be a framerate discrepancy that makes the run take less/more time than it should. You can find these things, if they exist, by doing the work to find them. Don't expect to just throw an accusation at the wall and then have other people do the work to support it. If you believe the run is fake, you have to prove it. (What you've done in the Pastebin is a lot of work, but it is not proof - especially the sections that simply speculate as to what "unlucky" outcomes might have been manipulated to deter suspicion.)

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Re: Why I think the WR is bogus

Post by G_heinz » Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:59 am

Vulajin wrote:Literally no person in this thread has leveled that claim. Feel free to reread the posts.
referring to a large amount of discussion that has occurred regarding this topic outside this thread. apologies for the confusion.
Vulajin wrote:Sorry, but this is how the world works.
a truly inane and brutish statement spoken like a true dogmatist. thank you for citing the status quo as evidence why my claims hold no water.
Vulajin wrote:MBM has been around for a long time and established a reputation that supports him if someone wants to call the legitimacy of his run into question. His run receives a presumption of innocence, not guilt, until you can find actual proof or get him to admit to the alleged wrongdoing. A no-name newcomer receives increased scrutiny because that is how a community works.
this doesn't register with me as i see no evidence of it. i have long heard of of MBM's name, but see no evidence that he streamed this game extensively or has provided ample support as to why his run should go beyond scrutiny. what you people are essentially saying to me is that once one establishes a reputation, all runs are accepted without question, no matter the circumstances, unless there is physical proof (such as video tampering), yet simultaneously it is thrown around that "there's no proving cheating in an RNG-based game." so which is it? go.

my only other question is: which one of you guys actually DID read the whole paste?
Vulajin wrote:If the run is fake, then there will be tells. Something won't line up between one section of the game and another, or there will be a framerate discrepancy that makes the run take less/more time than it should. You can find these things, if they exist, by doing the work to find them.
serious question, if you know the answer: if the run was completed with say, a ROM hack, it would leave no tangible evidence on the recording, because the game would run as normal but with manipulated properties underlyingly--that is, completely unseen. this type of hack is undoubtedly possible. if this were the case, what would you have a suspicious party such as myself do?
Last edited by G_heinz on Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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